Last year, the title of my November update was “November Pain”. This year has been less painful.
I’ve had some cash in my account, which leads to excessive thoughts about “what to buy”. I find myself lured into watching videos / reading reports on markets I probably shouldn’t be dabbling in. For a man with limited brainpower, I need to ignore entire sectors — either cover them with a broader ETF or simply ignore them. Ideally, I want to own the broad market and focus on what I am most familiar with, which is mainly the mining sector.
Stocks I have looked at.
- Devon Energy (DVN): A US-listed O&G company trading at 12-month lows. The stock has a 3.75% dividend. Investors appear to be unhappy with the summer acquisition (the Williston Basin business of Grayson Mill Energy). The stock is a Rick Rule pick (vid here). I did not pull the trigger on this.
- Nutrien (NTR.TO): A fertilizer company most Canadians are familiar with. I was tempted to enter into the stock after watching a Sven Carlin video. I already have potash exposure via Altius Minerals (though my position is small). The stock is trading at 2021 lows. The stock has a 4.5% dividend yield.
Braindead, the first thing we might presume is that we’re at a cycle low and the stock will rebound to $125 eventually. This won’t likely happen, however, since the massive bump is due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its effect on agriculture prices. Potash prices are within a historical range right now ($200-300 per metric ton), sitting at $300. One bear argument is that BHP’s new Jansen project, coming online late 2026) will eat up Nutrien market share. I have not pulled the trigger yet and may not because I feel like a tourist in this space.
Underlying my hesitancy to buy is a commitment to maintain a smaller portfolio (aiming for only 10 stocks), a worry that the market is still overvalued, and a lack of faith.
Positions I’ve added to:
- B2Gold (B2G.TO): I had wanted a bigger gold position, so I added on a pullback at $4.075. This stock has plenty of pullbacks: investors can’t seem to shake the jurisdictional risk warts despite the company getting its permits approved in September for trucking ore to the Fekola mine. I guess it doesn’t help that the Mali government continues to arrest mining execs every now and then to squeeze out more cash. For me, B2Gold is a Q2 2025 story.
- Champion Iron (CIA.TO): I like the company for reasons posted a few months ago. Added more at $5.69 to have a more sizable position.
- FPX Nickel (FPX.V): I added at .255c on weakness. Not much new to share here. I believe in the project.
- Regulus Resources (REG.V): I got filled at 1.91 today. My initial buy was at 0.91. After reviewing a short John Black interview with Antonio, it seems like the buyout of Antikori is not necessarily happening in the next six months. Consolidation between stakeholders will be needed first before a major will likely want to buy the project. A consolidated resource estimate will be released shortly. Nuton results are also pending. At a 249M market cap, I believe the eventual takeout price will be a double from here.
Tenaz Energy (TNZ.TO) has skyrocketed into a four-bagger; it’s now a bigger position than a core holding Bell (BCE.TO). It’s funny how the blue-chip plays I buy to be stable, reliable dividend-paying core holdings (Bell, Telus, AT&T once) tend to shit the bed. I guess this is why generalists buy ETFs.
One day I will be wise. And one day I will be dead. Hopefully on my deathbed, I won’t regret the time I spent following these companies but I fear I will. I guess that’s my biggest fear: wasting my life. Another night looking at laptop. Time to sign off before this becomes a full diary entry.
MB
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